Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3964 PHX 08:43 → XNA 13:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2800 PHX 09:27 → XNA 14:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3964 Envoy	PHX 08:43	XNA 13:18	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4086 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 15:49	XNA 20:30	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 2800 American	PHX 09:27	XNA 14:11	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON