Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1363 PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3122 PIT 19:40 → ATL 21:18 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:50	ATL 13:35	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1504 Delta Flight history →	PIT 05:45	ATL 07:25	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1383 Delta Flight history →	PIT 07:05	ATL 08:50	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	PIT 13:57	ATL 15:45	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	PIT 16:55	ATL 18:48	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	PIT 18:21	ATL 20:13	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	PIT 19:40	ATL 21:18	7%	2%	0.7%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON