Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5690 PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 5731 PIT 14:25 → BOS 16:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5690 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:00	BOS 08:00	3%	2%	0.6%	92%
B6 2186 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 00:34	BOS 02:35	5%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:59	BOS 12:48	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
B6 1286 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 09:08	BOS 11:07	6%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:35	BOS 20:36	8%	4%	0.6%	81%
B6 1786 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 20:04	BOS 22:02	8%	5%	0.7%	63%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 14:25	BOS 16:20	8%	4%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON