Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4336 PIT 06:23 → DCA 07:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5094 PIT 18:24 → DCA 19:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4336 Republic	PIT 06:23	DCA 07:42	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4470 Republic	PIT 14:40	DCA 15:59	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4757 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:56	DCA 12:16	11%	3%	0.6%	69%
OH 5402 PSA	PIT 09:36	DCA 10:46	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5094 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 18:24	DCA 19:57	16%	6%	0.9%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON