Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1874 PIT 06:09 → DEN 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1816 PIT 16:43 → DEN 18:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1874 Southwest	PIT 06:09	DEN 07:20	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1765 United Flight history →	PIT 08:30	DEN 09:59	5%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 3297 Southwest	PIT 18:44	DEN 20:08	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1816 United Flight history →	PIT 16:43	DEN 18:04	8%	3%	0.5%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON