Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 762 PIT 07:01 → DFW 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1868 PIT 18:17 → DFW 20:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 762 American Flight history →	PIT 07:01	DFW 09:09	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1583 American Flight history →	PIT 11:28	DFW 13:17	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2664 American Flight history →	PIT 15:12	DFW 17:05	12%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	PIT 18:17	DFW 20:05	15%	5%	0.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON