Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 3513 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 3513 PIT 07:28 → EWR 09:07 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest YX 3559 PIT 18:04 → EWR 19:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3513 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:28	EWR 09:07	4%	1%	0.7%	99%
YX 3486 Republic	PIT 06:34	EWR 08:17	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 3560 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:12	EWR 10:43	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
YX 3434 Republic	PIT 16:07	EWR 17:46	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3587 Republic	PIT 19:10	EWR 20:50	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 3559 Republic	PIT 18:04	EWR 19:48	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 15:13	EWR 17:00	14%	11%	12.5%	86%
UA 4403 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 11:26	EWR 12:58	19%	10%	4.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON