Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4611 at 06:43, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4611 Southwest	PIT 06:43	HOU 08:31	4%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	7h 25m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 32m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 56m	98%	84%
American Details →	PIT 15:12 → DFW 17:05AA 2664	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 52m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON