Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3581 PIT 10:19 → IAD 11:38 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3541 PIT 19:53 → IAD 21:12 · 4% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3581 Republic	PIT 10:19	IAD 11:38	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 3541 Republic	PIT 19:53	IAD 21:12	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 6184 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 10:30	IAD 11:42	6%	3%	1.4%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON