Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1859 United Flight history →	PIT 06:15	IAH 08:18	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1563 United Flight history →	PIT 16:54	IAH 18:51	13%	3%	0.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 07:28 → EWR 09:07UA 3513 · flown by Republic	3h 29m Newark	EWR 12:36 → IAH 15:34UA 2204	9h 06m	100%	92%
United Details →	PIT 08:36 → ORD 09:30UA 3461 · flown by Republic	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	8h 04m	100%	89%
United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	3h 19m Dulles	IAD 15:01 → IAH 17:30UA 2607	8h 00m	100%	88%
United Details →	PIT 06:58 → ORD 07:38UA 1803	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → IAH 13:39UA 2767	7h 41m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 28m	99%	87%
United Details →	PIT 09:12 → EWR 10:43UA 3560 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Newark	EWR 14:01 → IAH 17:00UA 1830	8h 48m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	8h 02m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	6h 15m	65%	56%
United Details →	PIT 15:13 → EWR 17:00UA 4457 · flown by GoJet	54m Newark	EWR 17:54 → IAH 20:55UA 2782	6h 42m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON