Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4587 PIT 06:18 → JFK 08:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4568 PIT 12:13 → JFK 13:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4587 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:18	JFK 08:01	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 5775 Republic	PIT 12:04	JFK 13:54	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 5788 Republic	PIT 07:09	JFK 08:53	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1198 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:25	JFK 07:57	6%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 4568 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:13	JFK 13:55	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5085 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 17:04	JFK 18:55	48%	34%	12.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON