Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2004 PIT 13:06 → LAX 15:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 318 PIT 19:31 → LAX 21:41 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2004 Delta	PIT 13:06	LAX 15:18	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2055 United	PIT 15:53	LAX 18:03	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 479 Delta	PIT 08:16	LAX 10:29	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 318 Delta	PIT 19:31	LAX 21:41	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	7h 27m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → DTW 07:12DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	50m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 03m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON