Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5753 PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 4396 PIT 18:59 → LGA 20:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:09	LGA 07:39	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:49	LGA 11:25	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:12	LGA 09:49	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 5786 Republic	PIT 10:15	LGA 11:50	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 14:46	LGA 16:21	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	9%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:06	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:59	LGA 20:37	12%	4%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON