Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 16%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4336 at 08:10, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 4336 PIT 08:10 → MCO 10:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3303 PIT 15:53 → MCO 18:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Weather 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4336 Southwest	PIT 08:10	MCO 10:34	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3187 Southwest	PIT 11:40	MCO 13:52	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 3819 Frontier Flight history →	PIT 14:36	MCO 17:01	19%	16%	5.1%	75%
WN 649 Southwest	PIT 18:13	MCO 20:25	22%	11%	2.1%	no record
WN 3303 Southwest	PIT 15:53	MCO 18:11	24%	13%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON