Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, AA 2313 at 06:15, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2313 American Flight history →	PIT 06:15	MIA 09:08	6%	3%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PIT 05:58 → CLT 07:37AA 376	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 09:10 → MIA 11:22AA 3184	5h 24m	100%	93%
American Details →	PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic	1h 53m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 11:19 → MIA 13:47AA 2321	5h 47m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836	5h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	97%	88%
American Details →	PIT 06:09 → LGA 07:39AA 4610 · flown by Republic	3h 33m New York	LGA 11:12 → MIA 14:29AA 2378	8h 20m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33DL 5753 · flown by Republic	3h 42m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	8h 19m	99%	87%
American Details →	PIT 07:58 → CLT 09:37AA 384	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 13m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 18:21 → ATL 20:13DL 1568	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 34m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	7h 15m	74%	66%
American Details →	PIT 18:24 → DCA 19:57AA 5094 · flown by PSA	55m Washington	DCA 20:52 → MIA 23:38AA 2214	5h 14m	69%	56%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	59m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 33m	51%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON