Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1055 PIT 06:38 → MSP 08:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 845 PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1055 Delta	PIT 06:38	MSP 08:02	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1219 Delta	PIT 11:03	MSP 12:18	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3687 SkyWest	PIT 06:34	MSP 07:58	8%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 845 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:23	MSP 12:35	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
DL 5249 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 16:20	MSP 17:40	35%	19%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON