Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3678 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 3678 PIT 05:06 → ORD 06:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 602 PIT 17:57 → ORD 18:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3678 Republic	PIT 05:06	ORD 06:00	2%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:36	ORD 09:30	5%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:37	ORD 12:29	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:04	ORD 08:57	5%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:10	ORD 10:58	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 640 American	PIT 06:32	ORD 07:23	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1803 United Flight history →	PIT 06:58	ORD 07:37	7%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 3577 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:04	ORD 16:52	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:42	ORD 20:17	14%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2671 American	PIT 21:36	ORD 22:24	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2675 American	PIT 15:48	ORD 16:28	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	PIT 17:57	ORD 18:39	20%	4%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON