Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 553 PIT 06:20 → PHL 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5132 PIT 14:42 → PHL 16:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 553 American	PIT 06:20	PHL 07:49	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 10:53	PHL 12:19	10%	4%	0.7%	67%
OH 5259 PSA	PIT 17:23	PHL 18:52	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3248 American Flight history →	PIT 08:26	PHL 09:58	11%	3%	0.6%	40%
OH 5132 PSA	PIT 14:42	PHL 16:01	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6092 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 19:45	PHL 21:09	25%	7%	14.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON