Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4820 PIT 07:22 → PHX 08:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3043 PIT 13:25 → PHX 14:51 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4820 Southwest	PIT 07:22	PHX 08:36	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1885 American Flight history →	PIT 08:06	PHX 09:45	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3043 Southwest	PIT 13:25	PHX 14:51	12%	2%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 14m	80%	69%
American Details →	PIT 18:17 → DFW 20:05AA 1868	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:55 → PHX 21:37AA 3232	6h 20m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON