tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history → PIT 08:00 RDU 09:26 3% 2% 0.5% 93%
YX 4742 Republic PIT 16:23 RDU 17:52 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 50m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 37m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic 2h 00m Boston BOS 10:00 → RDU 12:04DL 2118 6h 04m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:58 → CLT 07:37AA 376 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 10:23 → RDU 11:29AA 2688 5h 31m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938 7h 15m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550 4h 30m 97% 91%
UnitedDetails → PIT 07:01 → ORD 07:40UA 1803 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 00m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097 4h 57m 98% 89%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 54m Philadelphia PHL 22:03 → RDU 23:27AA 2692 3h 42m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON