Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2820 United Flight history →	PIT 07:01	SFO 09:36	6%	3%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 10:30 → IAD 11:42UA 6184 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 08m	100%	91%
JetBlue Details →	PIT 06:25 → JFK 07:57B6 1198	2h 33m New York	JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215	10h 43m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	2h 11m Boston	BOS 10:11 → SFO 13:45DL 860	10h 45m	100%	91%
American Details →	PIT 06:04 → JFK 07:33AA 4587 · flown by Republic	2h 56m New York	JFK 10:29 → SFO 13:54AA 149	10h 50m	99%	90%
American Details →	PIT 12:13 → JFK 13:55AA 4568 · flown by Republic	2h 35m New York	JFK 16:30 → SFO 20:05AA 15	10h 52m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 49m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:03 → SFO 13:52DL 672	9h 47m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	9h 12m	100%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 16:20 → MSP 17:40DL 5249 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	7h 37m	72%	64%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:30 → DTW 07:44DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → SFO 10:27DL 361	6h 57m	69%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON