Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 16:52, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1188 Delta Flight history →	PIT 17:40	SLC 19:49	10%	3%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 25m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 45m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 06:00 → BOS 08:00DL 5690 · flown by Republic	3h 15m Boston	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	10h 20m	100%	89%
American Details →	PIT 05:58 → CLT 07:37AA 376	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → SLC 13:46AA 1895	9h 48m	100%	88%
United Details →	PIT 16:52 → DEN 18:19UA 1816	2h 46m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	7h 28m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 13:57 → ATL 15:45DL 1345	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	8h 05m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 14:25 → BOS 16:20DL 5731 · flown by Republic	2h 25m Boston	BOS 18:45 → SLC 22:11DL 445	9h 46m	99%	87%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 18:17 → DFW 20:05AA 1868	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	6h 42m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON