Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1482 Southwest	PIT 06:38	STL 07:22	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3312 Southwest	PIT 19:14	STL 19:56	8%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 58m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:23 → MSP 12:35DL 845	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:05 → STL 16:41DL 1224	6h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PIT 18:21 → ATL 20:13DL 1568	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 32m	99%	87%
American Details →	PIT 05:58 → CLT 07:37AA 376	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:37 → STL 09:39AA 2497	4h 41m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 11:50 → ATL 13:35DL 1363	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:03 → STL 15:52DL 543	5h 02m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PIT 12:25 → DTW 13:36DL 5303 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	5h 59m	97%	87%
United Details →	PIT 06:58 → ORD 07:37UA 1803	3h 26m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → STL 12:26UA 1044	6h 28m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON