Today: MX 2424 at 13:42 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet today MX 2424 PIT 13:42 → TPA 16:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1415 PIT 15:55 → TPA 18:32 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


MX 2424 Breeze	PIT 13:42	TPA 16:22	13%	8%	2.2%	no record
WN 3253 Southwest	PIT 12:40	TPA 15:16	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1415 Southwest	PIT 15:55	TPA 18:32	26%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON