Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3316 PNS 07:52 → BNA 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2242 PNS 16:13 → BNA 17:50 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3316 Southwest	PNS 07:52	BNA 09:26	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 705 Southwest	PNS 07:58	BNA 09:33	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 704 Southwest	PNS 10:06	BNA 11:43	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3529 Southwest	PNS 10:33	BNA 12:09	6%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 1759 Southwest	PNS 16:08	BNA 17:47	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 2242 Southwest	PNS 16:13	BNA 17:50	11%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON