Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 5424 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet today AA 5424 PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OH 5139 PNS 17:36 → DCA 20:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5424 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 06:00	DCA 09:24	10%	6%	1.8%	84%
AA 5599 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 10:50	DCA 14:16	19%	8%	1.9%	87%
OH 9954 PSA	PNS 17:03	DCA 20:30	19%	9%	2.3%	no record
OH 5449 PSA	PNS 11:04	DCA 14:27	20%	8%	1.5%	no record
OH 5139 PSA	PNS 17:36	DCA 20:54	21%	9%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON