Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3982 at 11:32 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3982 PNS 11:32 → DFW 13:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2328 PNS 15:32 → DFW 17:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 11:32	DFW 13:43	9%	3%	1.6%	79%
OH 5499 PSA	PNS 07:00	DFW 09:11	11%	8%	2.0%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	PNS 15:32	DFW 17:37	22%	6%	1.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON