Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3531 Southwest	PNS 06:21	HOU 08:06	6%	2%	1.2%	no record
WN 3050 Southwest	PNS 06:57	HOU 08:40	6%	2%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 10m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 00m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:35 → ATL 19:45DL 1013	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	4h 16m	91%	79%
American Details →	PNS 15:32 → DFW 17:37AA 2328	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	4h 32m	80%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON