Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 12:27, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PNS 12:27	LGA 16:04	10%	3%	1.3%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	6h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → LGA 13:42DL 467	6h 42m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 28m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → LGA 22:27DL 490	7h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 30m	100%	83%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → LGA 13:47AA 2796	7h 25m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:35 → ATL 19:45DL 1013	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	4h 49m	92%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON