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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:01, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 6h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 5h 13m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 08m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 11m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 17:49 → MCI 18:56DL 1130 6h 59m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → MCI 21:08DL 3023 7h 14m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PNS 17:35 → ATL 19:45DL 1013 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 6h 23m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PNS 11:32 → DFW 13:43AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:06 → MCI 16:49AA 3030 5h 17m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:32 → DFW 17:37AA 2328 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:27 → MCI 20:04AA 2267 4h 32m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON