Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, MX 1909 at 08:48, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


MX 1909 Breeze	PNS 08:48	MCO 11:26	18%	6%	2.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:05 → MCO 13:34DL 1562	5h 34m	99%	82%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Miami	MIA 10:49 → MCO 12:04AA 2587	5h 04m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:27DL 1576	5h 26m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	3h 57m	96%	78%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	48m Houston	IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310	5h 00m	87%	76%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MCO 15:23DL 1372	5h 01m	98%	76%
American Details →	PNS 06:42 → CLT 09:23AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → MCO 14:01AA 2117	6h 19m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	PNS 17:33 → ATL 19:48DL 1013	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	5h 25m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON