tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 658 at 16:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United PNS 16:15 ORD 18:55 15% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → ORD 12:26AA 1038 7h 04m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 7h 14m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823 3h 18m Houston IAH 12:00 → ORD 14:51UA 1691 7h 51m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 15m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → PNS 10:50 → DCA 14:20AA 5599 · flown by PSA 1h 39m Washington DCA 15:59 → ORD 17:21AA 1637 6h 31m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → ORD 20:26DL 1139 6h 32m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PNS 06:00 → DCA 09:24AA 5424 · flown by PSA 2h 06m Washington DCA 11:30 → ORD 12:41AA 2023 6h 41m 92% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:06 → MIA 18:02AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 51m Miami MIA 18:53 → ORD 21:20AA 2194 6h 14m 54% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON