Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2622 at 07:05, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2622 Delta Flight history →	PSC 07:05	MSP 12:01	5%	4%	0.4%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 25m	98%	88%
United Details →	PSC 04:59 → DEN 08:23UA 480	1h 17m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 41m	95%	84%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Denver	DEN 18:05 → MSP 21:10UA 2076	7h 02m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	5h 54m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	PSC 13:50 → SLC 16:34DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	5h 04m	92%	80%
American Details →	PSC 04:59 → PHX 07:42AA 5007 · flown by SkyWest	58m Phoenix	PHX 08:40 → MSP 13:49AA 408	6h 50m	91%	75%
Delta Details →	PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36DL 3972 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → MSP 14:24DL 536	6h 59m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON