Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3484 PSC 05:24 → PDX 06:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3109 PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3484 SkyWest	PSC 05:24	PDX 06:34	8%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2471 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	PSC 16:04	PDX 17:10	10%	3%	1.0%	78%
AS 3109 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:23	PDX 06:18	11%	5%	0.7%	98%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON