tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5007 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 05:00 PHX 07:43 6% 6% 0.5% 94%
OO 6244 SkyWest PSC 16:16 PHX 19:30 10% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 6h 10m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 5h 57m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → PSC 04:59 → DEN 08:23UA 480 3h 02m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 7h 26m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 7h 57m 100% 84%
AlaskaDetails → PSC 05:23 → PDX 06:18AS 3109 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Portland PDX 09:02 → PHX 11:45AS 1350 6h 22m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m San Francisco SFO 19:01 → PHX 21:04UA 1375 7h 29m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest 3h 44m Denver DEN 19:26 → PHX 20:19UA 1507 8h 11m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Seattle SEA 16:14 → PHX 19:19DL 2442 6h 47m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON