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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3972 PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3140 PSC 10:49 → SEA 12:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
DL 3972 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 05:25 SEA 06:36 6% 5% 0.6% 93%
OO 3218 SkyWest PSC 05:51 SEA 07:07 7% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 3891 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 15:36 SEA 16:48 8% 4% 0.5% 90%
DL 3992 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → PSC 12:32 SEA 13:50 10% 5% 0.5% 85%
OO 3378 SkyWest PSC 17:42 SEA 19:07 10% 4% 0.5% no record
OO 3140 SkyWest PSC 10:49 SEA 12:20 12% 5% 0.5% no record
AS 2165 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 06:15 SEA 07:20 6% 2% 1.9% 94%
AS 2418 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 07:05 SEA 08:10 12% 6% 0.0% 88%
AS 2366 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 18:04 SEA 19:10 20% 3% 1.6% 80%
AS 2171 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 10:33 SEA 11:38 33% 2% 0.0% 67%
AS 2306 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PSC 12:56 SEA 14:02 44% 6% 0.0% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON