Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 5578 at 13:35, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:35	SFO 15:44	22%	6%	0.5%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 31m	100%	90%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	7h 32m	98%	83%
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	1h 56m Portland	PDX 18:46 → SFO 20:36AS 1374	4h 36m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50DL 1645	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	5h 48m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	7h 44m	100%	81%
United Details →	PSC 05:04 → DEN 08:09UA 480	1h 34m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 21m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 52m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → SFO 22:55AS 590	4h 51m	95%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON