Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 2–4% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1645 PSC 06:15 → SLC 08:50 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3728 PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Against a calm day 3% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 3% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1645 Delta Flight history →	PSC 06:15	SLC 08:50	2%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 3892 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:50	SLC 16:34	4%	3%	0.4%	93%
DL 3728 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 17:21	SLC 20:06	4%	2%	0.4%	95%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON