Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1010 PSP 05:05 → DEN 08:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1843 PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1010 United Flight history →	PSP 05:05	DEN 08:15	4%	3%	0.5%	91%
WN 3533 Southwest	PSP 06:55	DEN 10:04	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5617 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 08:58	DEN 12:36	6%	3%	0.5%	90%
WN 3322 Southwest	PSP 10:58	DEN 14:01	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1843 United Flight history →	PSP 13:30	DEN 16:43	12%	5%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON