Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5631 PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest UA 6052 PSP 08:30 → SFO 10:18 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5631 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 18:27	SFO 20:10	11%	6%	0.6%	64%
UA 2150 United	PSP 11:15	SFO 13:01	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3462 SkyWest	PSP 13:01	SFO 14:49	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
QX 2167 Horizon	PSP 11:00	SFO 12:46	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 1430 United Flight history →	PSP 13:33	SFO 15:18	15%	6%	0.6%	57%
AS 3497 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 08:56	SFO 10:44	15%	8%	0.6%	60%
OO 3180 SkyWest	PSP 13:57	SFO 15:44	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 6052 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSP 08:30	SFO 10:18	18%	8%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON