Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 1571 at 17:27, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1571 Southwest	PSP 17:27	SMF 19:04	9%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	6h 29m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PSP 06:06 → SLC 08:54DL 4030 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 10m	99%	91%
United Details →	PSP 05:10 → DEN 08:36UA 1010	3h 09m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SMF 13:18UA 2673	8h 08m	100%	90%
United Details →	PSP 08:58 → DEN 12:36UA 5617 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Denver	DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:40UA 1208	8h 42m	100%	88%
American Details →	PSP 12:59 → PHX 14:19AA 1884	3h 56m Phoenix	PHX 18:15 → SMF 20:23AA 464	7h 24m	99%	87%
United Details →	PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843	2h 54m Denver	DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132	7h 42m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	PSP 07:16 → PDX 09:48AS 3370 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	5h 17m	93%	83%
American Details →	PSP 06:01 → DFW 11:02AA 2425	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078	7h 40m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON