Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1023 PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2147 PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1023 Delta Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ATL 08:35	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1813 Delta	PVD 08:29	ATL 11:07	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	PVD 17:24	ATL 20:14	7%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	PVD 13:27	ATL 16:04	7%	2%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON