Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2398 at 13:12, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2398 Southwest	PVD 13:12	BNA 14:38	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	92%
American Details →	PVD 07:16 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	3h 44m Charlotte	CLT 13:24 → BNA 14:03AA 2409	7h 47m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 51m	99%	89%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 14m Chicago	ORD 11:13 → BNA 12:56AA 2362	6h 48m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490	7h 11m	99%	87%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	3h 13m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 12:05 → BNA 13:32B6 681	8h 47m	99%	85%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	52m Dulles	IAD 08:21 → BNA 09:17UA 1366	4h 27m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:54 → DTW 14:55DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	4h 46m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON