Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1585 PVD 07:16 → CLT 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2679 PVD 16:27 → CLT 18:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1585 American Flight history →	PVD 07:16	CLT 09:40	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	PVD 19:24	CLT 21:44	8%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 1569 American Flight history →	PVD 11:05	CLT 13:14	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2679 American	PVD 16:27	CLT 18:43	10%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON