Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:00	JFK 06:59	9%	2%	0.6%	97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 05:35 → DTW 07:42DL 5226 · flown by Endeavor	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	6h 23m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 20m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → JFK 00:46 +1DL 1632	7h 22m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:54 → DTW 14:55DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 17:53 → JFK 19:49DL 1316	6h 55m	98%	86%
American Details →	PVD 07:16 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:28 → JFK 13:22AA 374	6h 06m	97%	82%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	2h 28m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 11:20 → JFK 14:12B6 2102	8h 27m	98%	81%
American Details →	PVD 11:53 → DCA 13:39AA 5619 · flown by PSA	1h 15m Washington	DCA 14:54 → JFK 16:29AA 4781 · flown by Republic	4h 36m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON