Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 16%, against 5% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3331 at 06:56, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 3331 PVD 06:56 → MCO 09:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1347 PVD 14:54 → MCO 17:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Weather 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3331 Southwest	PVD 06:56	MCO 09:49	5%	1%	1.0%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:34	MCO 20:40	16%	9%	4.4%	60%
WN 1347 Southwest	PVD 14:54	MCO 17:45	28%	10%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON