Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 15m	99%	88%
American Details →	PVD 07:16 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 12:35 → MSP 14:30AA 1671	8h 14m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:48 → MSP 20:22DL 2654	7h 55m	99%	86%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 08:43 → MSP 10:22UA 2604	5h 32m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:54 → DTW 14:55DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 18m	94%	83%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 11:53 → MSP 13:32AA 2448	7h 24m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON