Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 360 PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:33 → ORD 18:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	6%	3%	0.7%	81%
YX 4798 Republic	PVD 13:29	ORD 15:09	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:33	ORD 11:09	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:30	ORD 13:09	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	PVD 17:53	ORD 19:31	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:33	ORD 18:14	14%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON