Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1520 PVD 06:05 → PHL 07:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5041 PVD 15:54 → PHL 17:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1520 American	PVD 06:05	PHL 07:38	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5362 PSA	PVD 06:21	PHL 07:58	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5585 PSA	PVD 08:01	PHL 09:46	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5251 PSA	PVD 10:54	PHL 12:33	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5608 PSA	PVD 10:38	PHL 12:12	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
OH 5129 PSA	PVD 14:47	PHL 16:11	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5041 PSA	PVD 15:54	PHL 17:24	16%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON