Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:27, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	9h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 32m	95%	80%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	3h 13m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453	8h 57m	99%	78%
American Details →	PVD 07:16 → CLT 09:40AA 1585	1h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	7h 34m	94%	76%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129	3h 01m New York	JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503	8h 14m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	PVD 15:58 → BWI 17:31WN 509	1h 32m Baltimore	BWI 19:03 → SJU 23:15WN 1164	7h 17m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON